Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Segwit2X Equals Free Dividends ... Come On ... Tell The Truth ... PLEASE!!

In my last article I was curious as to why the BT2 futures price is at 0.15 BTC while miners support is at 90%. Totally weird. This is as though - with the Reserve Bank announcing a 1%  interest rate increase, the banks react by dropping mortgage interest 2.5%. Bonkers!

The article here : Battle Royale Segwit2X And Segwir1X

I realise now that the reason is because investors are thinking that after the fork they will be getting Segwit2X fork coins as dividends, which they can immediately dump just as they did after the Bitcoin Cash fork. This may also to some extent explain why bitcoin price is increasing now just before the fork.

Wow! Stop! Newbies Beware! Stop swallowing this nonsense! It is not going to happen this way. Segwit2X is not the same as Bitcoin Cash. All major exchanges have announced that they will treat the chain with the most work done as BTC ( Bitpay  Coinbase  Blockchain ). Take this announcement seriously. It means that everything freezes after the fork and the large bitcoin companies ( users by proxy effectively) will decide which chain is BTC and that is by observing which chain has the Most Work Done. It is a race and the winner gets the Bitcoin name. Price does not come into the calculation. Only mining hashrate. Because of this decision,

Segwit2X will be the chain with the most work done after the fork.
It will be given the Bitcoin name.

How it will play

24 hours before the fork all BTC deposits and withdrawals will cease.  They will  now wait to see which chain will have the most work done basically the most hashing power.

Segwit2X will have 90% hashing power. The first block will be mined in about 11 minutes then the next in another 11 minutes. At the end of 2 hours there will be at least 10 Segwit2X blocks found. If Segwit 1X is lucky it will find 1 block after 2 hours. If we stop here we can already conclude that the Segwit2X chain has the most work done and so will be named BTC.

If we carry on longer, miners on Segwit1X chain will find that they are continually lagging behind Segwit2X in total work done, and at some point will start to switch over. When this happens the Segwit1X chain eventually dies ( Chain Death Spiral ) and will be abandoned. All blocks found on the Segwit1X chain will be worthless. The longer this carries on the more miners on this chain stands to lose.

Miners Miners Miners (Update)

Do not take your eyes off the miners. They control the play. You can be sure they are talking to each other. Look at it through their lenses and it will appear less hazy. So if you are a miner and you see this 6X play on Segwit2X what will you be doing?

Firstly you will want to keep the price down while you buy in. What an opportunity. If they make the play for 6X gain. They can say " it's what we said we would do " and no one can pull them up for insider trading. Then there is the longer game. What is the long game. I will have one more post before the fork next week to square up all these events and happenings since the last Bitcoin Cash Fork.

It is strange that there is quite a premium on the asian exchanges for Segwit2X. Do they know something?

No. Miners will mine the most profitable coin and they will move back to BTC (Segwit1X).

Get this. Do not fall into the argument that Segwit1X is BTC before the fork and Segwit2X is a new coin after the fork and so is an Alt coin. Both are bitcoin at the point of the fork. If you send btc from a wallet after the fork it is a valid transaction on both chains. The wallet does not care which chain wins. SPV wallets will follow the longest chain.

At the exchanges, and users like Coinbase, Bitpay effectively suspend trading. They wait to see which chain becomes the longest chain. This now depends on which chain has the greater mining power. They will not wait forever and at some point after they see that hashrate have stabilised, they will start trading the longest chain as Bitcoin. When this decision is made by consensus, the other coin is effectively dead. Price does not come into the equation only hashrate matters. 

No. The nodes will reject Segwit2X and miners will go back to Segwit1X

Nodes do not matter is this fight and is another fallacy thrown in to confuse. If this was true Bitcoin Cash could not have happen. It did. So this argument is false. And don't fall for the argument that Bitcoin Cash uses a different Proof Of Work too. It uses the same. Nodes do not matter because the system will propagate even with 2 nodes.

No. The users will rebel they will boycott all the "enemy services" and those services will pay a heavy price.

After the fork and if Segwit2X becomes BTC, the decision is made. Election is over. We could argue forever and never agree. So those that do not agree - can exit. The rest will carry on. No point spitting in the wind! Nothing will come off it. The community will move on. There will be more controversy and fights for "the soul of Bitcoin" going forward. For now this argument is over. The next fight will be between Segwit and No Segwit.

Effect of Bitcoin Cash hashrate

The impact of Bitcoin Cash will probably not be great because of a change to their Emergency Difficulty Adjuster (EDA) through a hard forked on 13 November. Bitcoin Cash hashrate would reduce in volatility and probably fluctuate around 1 Peta Hash.

51% attack and Wipeout

If Segwit1X gets only 10% or less in hashing power it can also be 51% attacked. However this is not likely or necessary as such an attack by miners will not look good on them.

Bitcoin Core is Legacy bitcoin and it will never die, may get smaller but never die.

Very dangerous unmovable position to take. Not healthy if you are betting your own money on it. Sometimes an immovable object meets an irresistible force. Only tenable if you are betting with someone else money. What if it does die? and it can without mining support.

What happens to the Core Chain

1) They can change the Proof of Work algorithm and branch out like Bitcoin Gold, but they won't be Bitcoin. This is not easy to do and will take some time to accomplish. Then there is all the infrastructure to build around it like wallets, exchanges, nodes etc. This is not easy as can be seen from the experience of Bitcoin Cash. Add in the need to finance the development and it is really nearly impossible.

Note :- Bitcoin Gold self mined 100,000 coins presumably for development. The price of futures started at $400 and is now about $150. These are futures. There are no coins yet. The longer it takes to release coins the less it will be worth. To me, Bitcoin Gold looks more like a get rich quick scheme preying on the uninformed, misinformed and the greedy.

2) They can hard fork to 2MB and remain as a competing client, and keep developing Segwit.

3) They can hard fork incorporating EDA, but it is rather too late to implement now.

Whatever happens there will be no Segwit2X dividend coins to dump.

The aftermath

If you own BTC in your wallet they will just continue to be BTC. Nothing changes. SPV wallets will just recognise the longest chain.

What if Segwit2X does not get 90% of hashing? Well, it just need to get the Majority. Add to this the probability that miners on Bitcoin Cash will move to help Segwit2X and you quickly see that, because the criteria is total work done, Segwit2X will win and become BTC.

Back to Segwit2X futures

So what happened with Segwit futures. For every BT2 coin sold someone must split 1 BTC into 1 BT1 and 1 BT2 coin. These are just numbers on Bitfinex ledger. These coins do not exist. So if someone holds 100 BT2 another person must hold 100 BT1 on Bitfinex ledger. If BT1 chain dies as the above scenario would suggest, then those holding BT1 coins will be valued at zero and BT2 coins will become BTC.

There will not be any BT1 coins to issue unless Segwit1X successfully hard fork which as explained above is a tall order. Even if Core hard fork to 2MB it is still a Segwit2X chain. If you have been deceived by the No2X campaign, than you will be very angry indeed. If you bought BT1 coin at 0.85 BTC thinking it is a 15% discount. You will lose 100% of your investment.

It is very important that you do your research. Do not listen to one side only. Be wary when people vent and rage loudly, aggressively, uses censorship and threats to make their point. Also be careful of those who do not fully know what they are talking about. Don't just accept their point of view. Examine their reasoning. If non is forthcoming - RUN.

Am I right?

I could be wrong! But it comes down to this. Do you think Segwit2X will start with more hashing or Segwit1X? I have described the above scenario if Segwit2X gets the majority hashing power come fork day.

If you still believe that Segwit1X will get the majority hash power then take the opposite view. However do consider :
1) There are 90% miners signalling for Segwit2X already. Are they lying? Bitcoin.com
2) There will be hidden hash power that will come up on fork day. These will more likely be for Segwit2X as their supporters have more money.
3) Nodes play no part in this fight. Don't be fooled by this argument.
4) If you are wrong you lose 100% of your investment.
6) Bitcoin Cash miners are Segwit2X supporters. They can switch their hash power.
7) Reputable People in business honor their agreements. Re NYA.

Can't emphasise this enough. DO YOUR RESEARCH. If you want to gamble on the futures, DO YOUR RESEARCH. I repeat again. THERE WON'T BE ANY SEGWIT2X COINS TO DUMP. One or the other will go to ZERO. If in doubt Do Nothing. Your bitcoins are safe.

The argument stops. We move on.

Regardless which side you are on in this argument the issue will be resolved. ( Good Video )The fork will happen. One coin will emerge. If you gamble on an outcome and you are wrong you will lose 100% of your bet. Unless you are willing to lose all just hold. Your BTC before the fork will still be BTC after the fork. There will be no Dividend Segwit2X coin that you can dump. It is not a repeat of the Bitcoin Cash fork.

Bitcoin Is A Beautiful System. It Will Win.

Despite all the noise, internal fights and external attacks, the price of Bitcoin goes higher. It will survive and get better. Even China can't kill Bitcoin. Bitcoin is what the majority of users agree is Bitcoin and the consensus process is constantly changing. We can't explain what is Bitcoin but we all know one when we see one. This is a social movement like we have never seen before. Hope you profit from this.